青海省 1961—2018 年侵蚀性降水时空变化特征     

霍金虎  向艳平  祁栋林  高贵生  陈奇 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2023,17(4):87-94

利用青海省41个气象站点1961—2018年逐日降水数据,采用常规统计学方法,统计逐年降水量/日数、侵蚀性降水量/日数,分析青海省降水和侵蚀性降水的时空分布特征。结果表明:青海省年降水量、降水日数、侵蚀性降水量、侵蚀性降水日数之间呈显著的幂函数关系,空间分布均从东南向西北逐步减少。从4个生态功能区分布来看,三江源地区年降水量最高,为469.3 mm,柴达木盆地全省最低,为99.4 mm;侵蚀性降水量柴达木盆地最低,为25.1 mm,东部农业区全省最高,为155.5 mm。1961—2018年青海省年降水量和侵蚀性降水量分别以8.1、4.7 mm/10a呈显著增加趋势,年降水日数表现为不显著的减少趋势,侵蚀性降水日数呈显著的增加趋势,变化速率分别为-0.5、0.2 d/10a。侵蚀性降水量和侵蚀性日数突变分别发生在2004年和2001年,突变后侵蚀性降水量和降水日数较突变前分别增加22.4 mm和0.7 d。1961—2018年青海省侵蚀性降水量和侵蚀性降水日数的贡献率平均为32.7%和6.5%,侵蚀性降水量和侵蚀性降水日数的贡献率分别以0.59%和0.21%呈显著增加趋势。  相似文献   

A chronology of the Little Ice Age in the tropical Andes of Bolivia (16°S) and its implications for climate reconstruction     

Antoine Rabatel  Bernard Francou  Philippe Naveau 《Quaternary Research》2008,70(2):198-212

Dating moraines by lichenometry enabled us to reconstruct glacier recession in the Bolivian Andes since the Little Ice Age maximum. On the 15 proglacial margins studied, we identified a system of ten principal moraines that marks the successive positions of glaciers over the last four centuries. Moraines were dated by performing statistical analysis of lichen measurements based on the extreme values theory. Like glaciers in many mid-latitude mountain areas, Bolivian glaciers reached their maximal extent during the second half of the 17th century. This glacier maximum coincides with the Maunder minimum of solar irradiance. By reconstructing the equilibrium-line altitude and changes in mass-balance, we think the glacier maximum may be due to a 20 to 30% increase in precipitation and a 1.1 to 1.2 °C decrease in temperature compared with present conditions. In the early 18th century, glaciers started to retreat at varying rates until the late 19th to early 20th century; this trend was generally associated with decreasing accumulation rates. By contrast, glacier recession in the 20th century was mainly the consequence of an increase in temperature and humidity. These results are consistent with observations made in the study region based on other proxies.  相似文献   

Neotropical vegetation response to rapid climate changes during the last glacial period: Palynological evidence from the Cariaco Basin     

Catalina González  Lydie M. Dupont 《Quaternary Research》2008,69(2):217-230

We present new palynological information from the anoxic Cariaco Basin, off Venezuela, that provides insight into the response of northernmost South American vegetation to rapid climate changes between 68 and 28 ka, specifically during North Atlantic Heinrich events (HEs) and Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles. We defined three different vegetation modes: (1) an interstadial mode characterized by the highest pollen concentration and the maximum extension of semi-deciduous and evergreen forests; (2) a stadial mode characterized by increases of salt marshes, herbs, and montane forests; and (3) a Heinrich event mode characterized by the lowest pollen concentrations, abrupt increases of salt marshes, and decreased forest abundance. Similarly, indices of C4/C3 plants show increases during stadials with clear peaks during the onset of HEs, though grasslands did not become dominant during these periods. We alternatively propose that these expansions of C4 plants are associated with the expansion of coastal salt marshes. Our vegetation record suggests the prevalence of humid conditions during interstadials, dry and cold conditions during stadials, and dry and cold conditions together with changes in sea level during HEs. This new palynological evidence supports previous interpretations that main environmental changes in northernmost South America were driven by latitudinal displacements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and sea-level changes.  相似文献   

The use and performance of mesoscale models over the Indian region for two high-impact events     

D. R. Sikka  P. Sanjeeva Rao 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(3):353-372

High-impact mesoscale weather events, occurring in different parts of India in all seasons, lead to major weather- and climate-related disasters. Several research groups and operational weather forecasting centres in India have adopted mesoscale models for research and operational usage. This paper reviews the work done by different groups with respect to two specific events, (1) unprecedented locally heavy rainfall near Mumbai (Santa Cruz) on 26 and 27 July 2005 and (2) the Orissa super-cyclone of 29 and 30 October 1999 from its incipient stage on 24 and 25 October 1999. Considerable variability in the prediction of the intensity and location of mesoscale heavy rainfall, as well as in the intensity and path of the super-cyclone, are found. In order to reduce uncertainty in dynamical prediction, it is necessary that the model dynamics, physics, resolution, boundary conditions and availability of data on land–ocean surface processes are tuned separately to the specific event types, such as heavy monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclone genesis and movement and severe local thunderstorms, as the processes controlling such types of events may require suitable treatments for their proper simulations through appropriate dynamics, physics and resolution.  相似文献   

Impact of various synthetic vortices on cyclone track prediction     

Geeta Agnihotri  Y. V. Rama Rao  S. K. Dash 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):437-463

Sensitivity experiments are conducted for three cases of cyclones for investigating the impact of different vortex initialization schemes on the structure and track prediction of the cyclone using India Meteorological Department’s Limited Area Model. The surface wind and pressure profiles generated using Holland and Rankine initialization schemes differ from each other. These different generated profiles are compared with the actual data and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated between them. In case of the Holland vortex, ‘b’ is found to be equal to 1.5 and 2.0 respectively for two cases of very severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea, namely 6–10 June 1998 and 16–20 May 1999 and 2.25 for the severe cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The ‘α’ parameter in Rankine’s scheme was found to be 0.5 for two cases and 0.4 for the third system. This shows that cyclones differ even if they attain the same intensity. The values of these parameters i.e. ‘b’ and ‘α’ are used for generating the synthetic wind data for individual cyclones and the same is used in the data assimilation system. The analysis and forecast generated for the above cases using the Holland scheme show that the simulated structure has characteristics closer to the actual storm; however, the Rankine scheme shows a weaker circulation. The mean track error for three cases in the Holland scheme is 93, 149, 257 and 307 km in 12-, 24-, 36- and 48-h forecast. The mean track errors for the Rankine scheme are 152, 274, 345 and 327 km, respectively, for the same period.  相似文献   

水平角观测时竖轴倾斜引起误差的改正方法探讨     

胡特彧  杨松林  田爱军 《北京测绘》2008,(2):43-46

对于水平角观测时垂直轴倾斜带来的影响,一是采用测回间重新整平的方法来削弱;二是在有竖盘指标水准管的情况下,读取格值施加改正数的方法来削弱。但这两种方法的精度有限,且对于无竖盘指标水准管的仪器目前没有提出相应的解决方法,＂虚拟目标法＂可以有效地解决这个问题。  相似文献   

FY-3A/MERSI、MODIS C5.1和C6气溶胶光学厚度产品在中国区域与地面观测站点的对比分析     

唐维尧  鲍艳松  张兴赢  刘辉  朱柳桦 《气象学报》2018,76(3):449-460

准确获取气溶胶光学厚度对于气候变化研究和大气环境监测具有重要意义。通过波长插值和时空匹配方法,利用气溶胶自动观测站网（AERONET）观测的气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）对风云3A/中分辨率光谱成像仪（FY-3A/MERSI）、Terra（Aqua）/MODIS的C5.1（Collections 5.1）和C6（Collections 6）气溶胶光学厚度产品在中国区域的反演精度进行验证分析。结合一次发生在中国境内的沙尘天气与一次严重雾霾天气个例,分析上述卫星气溶胶光学厚度的分布特征。研究结果表明,（1）FY-3A/MERSI AOD的反演精度较高（R=0.887,RMSE=0.234）,其值低于AERONET的观测值（Bias=-0.293）。（2）在不同的下垫面下,各种卫星暗像元算法AOD产品反演精度有差异,植被覆盖情况越好,反演精度越高,而植被很少的地区,即亮地表甚至没有反演值。（3）MODIS C5.1深蓝算法产品能在亮地表地区反演AOD,但效果不佳。MODIS C6中的深蓝算法产品在不同下垫面的反演精度都很高（RMSE为0.096-0.127）。（4）在不同季节的对比中,各种卫星AOD产品在夏季的反演精度最差,而反演最好的季节各有不同。（5）在一次沙尘天气污染与一次严重雾霾天气个例中,中国西部与北部区域,MODIS C6深蓝算法AOD的监测效果优于其他算法AOD;MERSI AOD产品在此区域的分布不连续。总体而言,MODIS C6 AOD分布比MODIS C5.1产品连续,MODIS 3 km产品在相同区域的AOD值高于其他产品。以上结论可为卫星AOD产品在中国区域的使用提供参考。   相似文献   

A Limb Correction Method for the Microwave Temperature Sounder 2 and Its Applications     

Xiaoxu TIAN  Xiaolei ZOU  Shengpeng YANG 《大气科学进展》2018,35(12):1547-1552

The Microwave Temperature Sounder 2 (MWTS-2) is a cross-track radiometer that has 13 channels of sampling radiances emitted from different vertical levels of the atmosphere. Because of the varying scan angles of each field of view within a scan line, observations from the MWTS-2 are subject to strong scan-position-dependent features, i.e., the limb effect. When examining brightness temperatures (TBs), weather signals observed at every temperature-sounding channel are often concealed by scan-dependent patterns. This study, therefore, proposes a limb correction method to remove scan-dependent features so that the underlying weather signals can be uncovered. Limb-corrected TBs can be used to monitor large-scale patterns over the globe as well as extreme weather events such as typhoons. Limb-corrected TBs are also more correlated with atmospheric physical variables such as temperature and liquid water path.  相似文献   

中国东部季风区夏季四类雨型的水汽输送特征及差异   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

杨柳  赵俊虎  封国林 《大气科学》2018,42(1):81-95

利用1951~2015年NCEP/NCAR再分析逐日资料和中国160站月降水观测资料,及中国东部季风区夏季四类雨型（北方型、中间型、长江型和华南型）的划分结果,分析了东亚水汽输送与中国东部季风区夏季降水的关系,比较了四类雨型的水汽输送、收支特征及其差异,结果表明:（1）夏季影响中国东部季风区的水汽通道主要有以下6条:印度洋通道,表征印度季风区偏南的西风水汽输送;高原南侧通道,表征印度季风区偏北的西风水汽输送;太平洋通道,表征由西太平洋副热带高压（副高）带来的西太平洋的水汽;西风带通道,表征西风带的水汽输送;孟加拉湾通道,表征来自孟加拉湾向北的水汽输送;南海通道,表征来自印度洋和孟加拉湾在中南半岛转向及来自南海的水汽;与中国东部不同地区降水异常相联系的水汽通道存在明显的差异,且同一条水汽通道在夏季不同阶段与降水的关系也不尽相同。（2）四类雨型的水汽输送和收支特征有明显的差异,华北盛夏降水主要受亚洲季风水汽输送的影响,其次是西风带水汽输送,北方型年二者往往偏强,尤其是季风水汽输送增加一倍以上,贡献也明显增加,20世纪70年代中期之后,季风水汽输送显著减弱,西风带水汽输送的重要性相对增大;淮河流域夏季降水异常主要受太平洋通道水汽输送异常的主导,其次是高原南侧通道水汽输送,二者偏强并在淮河流域辐合时,淮河流域降水偏多形成中间型年;长江中下游地区夏季降水主要受太平洋通道水汽输送异常的主导,长江型年,副高西北侧的西南水汽输送异常加强,并与北方冷空气异常在长江中下游地区辐合,区域为正的水汽净收支;华南地区夏季降水则受印度洋通道、太平洋通道及南海通道的共同影响,当三条通道异常偏强,水汽与北方冷空气在华南地区辐合,形成华南型年。本研究所得结论加深了我们对四类雨型形成机理的认识,并为汛期主雨带的预测提供了参考。  相似文献   

台风“卢碧”变性增强过程的诊断研究   总被引：6，自引：6，他引：0  

卓鹏  王举  黄泓  王学忠 《气象科学》2018,38(3):310-319

利用日本气象厅JRA再分析资料和台风最佳路径资料以及TRMM降水资料,对0920号台风"卢碧"变性过程的环流形势、高低层热力异常和锋生锋消等特征进行了分析研究。结果表明,"卢碧"的变性是中高纬度冷空气入侵的结果,变性过程伴随着西风槽的东移,高空急流的加强以及西太平洋副热带高压的减弱东撤。低纬度暖湿气流及较大的正涡度异常气旋式卷入台风环流,并在其东北侧积聚产生大量降水,释放的凝结潜热有利于北侧脊的加强,使得高空急流进一步加强,使得台风中心气压进一步降低。锋生、强降水伴随的潜热释放以及气旋中心气压之间存在着正反馈效应是"卢碧"变性后得以增强再发展的主要原因。热成风涡度梯度的分布对"卢碧"的变性增强过程具有较好的指示意义。  相似文献